ECB raises interest rates in September 2026: what should you do about your mortgage?
The European Central Bank has raised interest rates again. The decision was announced on 10 September 2026 and increases the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points, with effect from 16 September 2026.
After this change, the key rates become:
| Key ECB interest rate |
New rate from 16 September 2026 |
| Deposit facility |
2.50% |
| Main refinancing operations |
2.65% |
| Marginal lending facility |
2.90% |
For anyone with a mortgage, buying a home or considering transferring an existing loan, the practical question is straightforward: what should I do now?
The answer should be prudent. An ECB rate hike does not change every mortgage overnight, but it does change the environment in which banks, markets and households make decisions. The key is to understand when your instalment may be reviewed, how much room there is in your household budget and whether it still makes sense to compare alternatives.
Why did the ECB raise rates again?
According to the ECB, the decision was taken because the conflict in the Middle East continues to generate inflationary pressure, particularly through energy prices, and because inflation is expected to remain above the 2% target for longer.
In the new projections published in September, the ECB expects headline inflation to average 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028. For inflation excluding energy and food, the projections point to 2.5% in 2026, 2.6% in 2027 and 2.3% in 2028.
This does not mean there is a guaranteed path for the next meetings. The ECB again stated that it will decide meeting by meeting, based on economic data, inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.
For households, the practical conclusion is this: it is less useful to try to predict the next move with certainty and more useful to prepare the budget for different scenarios.
Will my monthly payment rise immediately?
Not necessarily.
For mortgage credit, the impact depends mainly on the type of interest rate in the contract.
If you have a variable rate
In a variable-rate mortgage, the interest rate is usually calculated using the contracted Euribor plus the bank's spread.
Nominal annual rate = Euribor + spread
The instalment is only reviewed on the date set out in the contract, for example every 3, 6 or 12 months. So an ECB decision today may influence the market, but it does not mean the monthly payment changes on the same day.
It is also important to remember that Euribor may anticipate expectations. It can rise or fall before official decisions and does not have to follow the ECB point by point.
If you have a mixed rate
With a mixed rate, there is an initial fixed-rate period. During that period, the monthly payment does not change because of Euribor. The key point is what happens at the end of that period: once the fixed period ends, the loan moves to the variable conditions agreed in the contract.
If your mixed-rate period ends in the coming months, this is a good time to request simulations and understand the likely payment under the new regime.
If you have a fixed rate
In a fixed-rate contract, the agreed rate remains in place during the contracted fixed period. The ECB rate hike does not change your monthly payment during that time.
Even so, it may influence new proposals, transfers or renegotiations. If you are considering moving your loan to another bank, compare the total cost of the operation, not just the monthly payment.
What should you calculate now?
Before deciding, gather concrete information about your contract and household budget.
Start by checking:
- outstanding capital;
- remaining term;
- type of rate: fixed, variable or mixed;
- Euribor index used in the contract and review period;
- spread;
- current monthly payment;
- associated insurance;
- APRC and total amount payable;
- fees and associated products;
- date of the next rate review.
Then run a simple budget test: what would happen if the instalment rose by 25, 50, 100 or 150 euros per month?
This exercise does not predict the future. It helps you understand whether there is room in the budget. If the current payment is already close to the comfortable limit, the priority should be to review recurring costs and avoid taking on new financial commitments without analysis.
Practical example: the impact of a rate increase
Imagine a mortgage with EUR 180,000 outstanding and 28 years left to pay. In a simplified simulation, excluding insurance and fees, the monthly payment could vary as follows:
| Illustrative nominal annual rate |
Approximate monthly payment |
| 3.00% |
EUR 778 |
| 3.25% |
EUR 804 |
| 3.50% |
EUR 831 |
| 4.00% |
EUR 887 |
This example is indicative only. Your real instalment depends on the capital, term, rate type, review date, insurance, fees and contracted conditions.
The key point is that small rate changes can have a relevant monthly impact, especially when the outstanding capital is still high.
Has buying a home become harder?
It may become more demanding, but that does not mean buying a home is impossible.
Anyone preparing a new mortgage should look at three factors together:
- property price and down payment;
- likely instalment under different rate scenarios;
- debt-to-income ratio after including all existing credit commitments.
Since August 2026, the Bank of Portugal's macroprudential recommendations have made the debt-to-income assessment more prudent. This means households close to the limit may need to adjust the purchase price, increase the down payment, repay other loans or look for a rate structure with more predictability.
Before signing a promissory purchase agreement, it is advisable to obtain a preliminary assessment of borrowing capacity and understand which documents will be needed.
Is it worth transferring the mortgage?
It may be worth comparing, but there is no automatic answer.
A mortgage transfer may allow you to review the spread, rate, insurance, associated products or term. However, the operation can also involve costs: valuation, registrations, formalisation, possible early repayment charges and new insurance policies.
Always compare:
- monthly payment before and after;
- APRC;
- total amount payable;
- total term;
- insurance cost;
- associated products;
- transfer costs;
- time needed to recover initial costs.
A lower monthly payment does not necessarily mean the loan becomes cheaper. If the reduction results only from extending the term, the total cost may increase.
What if there are other loans in the household budget?
When rates rise, monthly room becomes even more important. A personal loan, car loan or credit card balance can reduce the ability to handle the mortgage payment or make a new credit application harder.
In some cases, it may make sense to analyse credit consolidation. But this solution requires care: it may reduce the monthly payment while increasing the term and the total amount paid.
The goal should not be only to lower the monthly instalment. It should be to understand whether the solution improves the household's financial stability without creating excessive risk.
How can DSIC Seixal Torre da Marinha help?
In a more uncertain interest-rate environment, comparing proposals becomes more important than accepting the first simulation.
DSIC Seixal Torre da Marinha can help you:
- analyse your situation free of charge;
- estimate your debt-to-income ratio;
- simulate different payment scenarios;
- compare mortgage proposals;
- assess fixed, mixed and variable rates;
- review insurance and associated products;
- study a mortgage transfer;
- prepare documentation;
- follow the process with financial institutions.
As a tied credit intermediary, DSIC Seixal Torre da Marinha does not guarantee approval, savings or specific conditions. The final decision always belongs to the financial institutions and depends on the solvency assessment and documents submitted.
Frequently asked questions
Does an ECB rate hike mean Euribor always rises?
No. Euribor reflects expectations and money market conditions. It may react before or after ECB decisions and does not have to move by exactly the same amount.
I have a variable rate. When does my payment change?
It depends on the review period defined in the contract. It may be every 3, 6 or 12 months, for example. Check the ESIS, your contract or ask for support to confirm the next review date.
I have a mixed rate. Should I be concerned?
During the fixed period, the payment remains as contracted. The important point is when that period ends and the loan moves to a variable rate.
Should I switch to a fixed rate now?
It depends on your current contract, available proposals, remaining term, costs and need for predictability. The decision should be based on complete simulations.
Does transferring a mortgage guarantee savings?
No. It may create a more suitable solution in some cases, but it depends on conditions, costs, insurance, term and the new institution's assessment.
Conclusion: reviewing your mortgage is more useful than trying to predict the market
The ECB rate hike on 10 September 2026 reinforces the importance of monitoring your mortgage carefully. But the best response is not to act impulsively. It is to calculate, test scenarios and compare solutions using real data.
If you have a mortgage, are buying a home or want to understand whether your current contract is still suitable in today's market, contact DSIC Seixal Torre da Marinha. The analysis is free of charge and can help you make a more informed decision.
You can also read other content in Tips & Resources, including the article on interest rate increases and mortgage credit in 2026 and the article on mortgage transfer and credit consolidation.
This article is for information purposes, reflects the information available on 10 September 2026 and does not replace personalised financial advice or the pre-contractual and contractual documentation provided by financial institutions.
Sources consulted
